By Leia Larsen. System emergencies occur fairly infrequently and typically require small responses from Glen Canyon Dam. The northwestern side branch of Lake Powell remained cut off from the rest of the reservoir. She also sits on the Upper Colorado River Commission. Projections of end of water year 2023 elevation using the February minimum and January maximum inflow forecast results are 3,544.04 feet and 3,582.24 feet, respectively. Graphical view of Lake Powell water data. This is a decrease of 3.33 maf over the total storage at the beginning of water year 2022 when total system storage was 22.87 maf (39 percent of capacity). (2019-2021) AND my own personal prediction of 2022 based on p. The Water Desks mission isto increase the volume, depth and power of journalismconnected to Western water issues. Hourly releases during February 2023 will fluctuate from a low of approximately 5,797 cfs during the early morning hours to a high of 10,091 cfs during the afternoon and evening hours. Up to 80 percent of water use in the basin is for agricultural purposes, but urban water conservation serves an important purpose, too. The bureau, in consultation with tribal nations and the seven Colorado River Basin states, decided to keep nearly 500,000 acre-feet of water in Lake Powell that had originally been planned to be released to the Lower Basin states of Nevada, Arizona and California this year. The Bureau of Reclamation announced on May 3, 2022, two separate urgent drought response actions that will help prop up Lake Powell by nearly 1 million acre-feet (maf) of water over the next 12 months (May 2022 through April 2023). Lake Powell has fallen victim to excessive water use as a 20-year drought parches the region. He also was an associate editor at 5280 and a reporter for the Vail Daily. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. "I would be reluctant to limit it to years just since 2000, because I think there is some value in acknowledging the variability that goes on in our basin," he says. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. Under a Drought Contingency Plan adopted in 2019, approximately 500 thousand acre-feet (kaf) of water will come from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, located approximately 455 river miles upstream of Lake Powell. The picture was much different 59 years ago, when the giant storage reservoir on the Colorado River was filling, its electricity helping power the West and the revenue from its power sales helping fund endangered fish protection programs across the Colorado River Basin. We have to take a strong look at what we will do in the unlikely event that Lake Powell stops producing hydropower, said WAPAs Meiman. 8_9dyB`n`` +30|@,6a # Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. For additional information, see the following news release: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196. //-->, Printable Version Correction: This article has been corrected to indicate that Lake Powell began filling 59 years ago, not 60 years, as the original article stated. For more information on the tools we use, consult, Upper Colorado Mainstem Specific Site Forecasts. The last couple months have steadied out a little bit, Cody Moser, a senior hydrologist with NOAA forecast center, said during a recent web briefing to review the most recent report. Combined with water withdrawals that many believe are not sustainable, the drought has caused a dramatic drop in Lake Powells water level. The draft plan is expected to be released next week, according to Becki Bryant, a spokeswoman for Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region. Few expected to ever see this drop in hydropower production, let alone consider what to do if Glen Canyon were to cease electricity production entirely. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizona's Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. The August 2022 24-Month Study modeled 2023 and 2024 operations at Lakes Powell and Mead as if the 0.480 maf had been delivered to Lake Mead for operating tier/condition purposes both for the U.S. Lower Basin and for Mexico. By, What We Know, And What You Can Do To Help. Forecasts are calling for 4.1 million acre-feet of water to flow into Lake Powell from April to July this year, but water managers are obligated to release more than 7 million acre-feet out of the lake. 159 0 obj <> endobj (For comparison, the 1991-2020 total water year average is 9.60 maf.) As a news piece, this article cites verifiable, third-party sources which have all been thoroughly fact-checked and deemed credible by the Newsroom in accordance with the Civil Constitution. Upper Colorado River Basin regularly experiences significant year to year hydrologic variability. 2018 brought some relief after a wet winter. 04:18 . SW Satellite Weather In the main body of Lake Powell, water pooled along its eastern edge, while large expanses of dry canyon floor were visible in the west. Part of the Glen Canyon Conservancy Family, Utah D.O.T Charles Hall Ferry for UT Route 276. On Tuesday, the lake fell below 3,525 feet above sea level, a key target elevation that water managers have been trying to keep Powell above because it provides a buffer from the minimum level at which Glen Canyon Dam can generate power. Prepared by Ashley Nielson NOAA, National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Salt Lake City, Utah www.cbrfc.noaa.gov Contents Water managers, who . Were an initiative of theCenter for Environmental Journalismat the University of Colorado Boulder. As of Wednesday, the water level was 3,524.22 feet. google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; We are 37% through the Water Year. Releases from Glen Canyon Dam can also fluctuate beyond scheduled releases when called upon to respond to unscheduled power outages or power system emergencies. We are 41% through the Water Year. The water level in Lake Powell was at a record low when rain and snow began to fall across the Colorado River Basin in October, soaking dry soils ahead of the winter season. The drop in the power forecast comes as Upper Colorado River Basin states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming prepare to finalize a new drought operations plan for the giant river system. In the early years of this image series, water levels began to drop. She grew up in Tucson, Arizona, where she fell in love with the ecology and geology of the Sonoran desert. Across most of the streams and rivers of the Upper Basin, forecasted runoff ranges from very poor (50% of average) to mediocre (80% of average).. Lake Mead's water levels . Its not a hypothetical situation anymore.. That spring runoff is critical to irrigated agriculture, domestic water supplies, and the recreation industry in Colorado and the West. He said the soil moisture conditions were still well below normal across western Colorado, particularly in the southwest part of the state. This level is actually .02 feet . Last Reading: 3521.11 on Feb 27, 2023 Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 26, 2023 There are currently 1,734,731,016,499 gallons of water in Lake Powell! As of September 20, 2021, the water elevation at Glen Canyon Dam was 3,546.93 feet, more than 153 feet below "full pool" (elevation 3,700 feet). Lake Powell is now at a historic low. Printable Version Gas Prices on Lake Detailed Map of Powell 15 Day Weather Forecast These long-term projections help water managers plan for future shortages, which are increasingly likely in the Colorado River Basin, in part because of warmer temperatures brought on by global climate change. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. levels. The modeling approach for WY 2023 will apply to 2024. The model is based on weather conditions over a thirty-year span. 0.523 maf in Lake Powell from December 2022 through April 2023. Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. Scientists say the current drought is the driest on record in the last twelve hundred years. Upper Colorado Region Water Operations: Current Status: Lake Powell, Spring Snow Brings Moisture to Colorado Front Range, NASA Goddard Space Both Moser and Lukas said that dry soil moisture conditions across the Colorado River Basin, which can sponge off valuable runoff before the water makes it into rivers and streams, wont be quite as bad as last year but will still be a negative factor. Consistent with Section 6.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, Lake Powells operations in water year 2023 are governed by the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier (LEBT) with an initial projected water year release volume of 7.00 maf. Lake Powell Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2022 Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. 2022, a day after Southern California delared a water . water-data.com Lake Powell Water Database. 0 Boats docked at Lake Powell on July 13 . This 2022 Plan is described above and available for review here: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html. But the declining water already has drained some of the fun, he said. The January 2023 24-Month Study probable maximum and the February 2023 24-Month Study probable minimum inflow scenarios were used to determine the range of probable outcomes. hb```)," Wednesday snow and wind will be heavy at times leading to difficult if not impossible travel. At the same time, electric utilities across the West are looking for other green options and hoping that hydropower production wont stop altogether. The lake held just 30 percent of its capacity. However, the Bureau of Reclamation's 24-month forecast that was just released at the end of last week projects Lake Mead to be at 1,041.10 feet in January 2023. The bureau also announced it would release an additional 500,000 acre-feet of water from Flaming Gorge reservoir in Wyoming to further raise the water level at Powell. Federal and state water managers have watched the water level in Lake Powell closely this year. The Upper Basin reservoirs have already provided 161,000 acre-feet of water pursuant to the imminent need provision of the Drought Response Operations Agreement, including 36,000 acre-feet from Blue Mesa Reservoir in Colorado. Late last fall WAPA, which operates the electric grid and distributes the power to utilities, raised rates 30% to cover reductions in power revenue. 175 0 obj <>/Filter/FlateDecode/ID[<68753438768B134985CC80C922059B30>]/Index[159 34]/Info 158 0 R/Length 84/Prev 199590/Root 160 0 R/Size 193/Type/XRef/W[1 2 1]>>stream Gas Prices on Lake The lake level began to rebound; only the 2008 image appeared to deviate from the trend toward rising water levels. %%EOF Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. As air warms over time, less precipitation makes it to the reservoirs due to evaporation. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites The declines were first apparent in the side canyons feeding the reservoir which thinned and then shortened. The NOAA forecast center begins releasing monthly water supply forecasts for the Colorado River Basin in December. While the lake was significantly higher in 2011 and 2012 than in 2005, a careful comparison of the side canyons reveals that the level was still not back to 1999 levels, when the lake was near full capacity. Utahs Flaming Gorge, Colorados Blue Mesa and New Mexicos Navajo. google_color_text = "000000"; Get the most up to date information on Lake Powell's water levels and the status of launch ramps from the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and more with the links and pages below. The most probable inflow scenario reflects a median hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 50 percent of the time. Jian Wang of Utahs Center for Colorado River Studies says that means the projections may be too optimistic. 15 Day Weather Forecast Lund said that throughout the reservoir's history, it has refilled to its original levels just once. Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. Sunday, February 26, 2023 12:00:00 AM Level is 178.87 feet %PDF-1.7 % Feet above sea level Change - Feet difference over previous . But the 30-year period is the standard reference worldwide and captures more variability, according to Paul Miller of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. For five years after 2012, snow- and rainfall totals were generally low, as the region suffered through a persistent, long-term drought. The Colorado River cuts through dry land that was once covered by Lake Powell on September 7, 2022, near Hite, Utah. Encompassing all or parts of Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, Utah and Wyoming. The forecast isnt great, said Kyle Whitaker, Colorado River Manager for the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District, one of the largest diverters of water in the headwaters region of the river. Arizona Public Radio | Your Source for NPR News, PublishedFebruary 28, 2022 at 5:00 AM MST. WEco is funded by multiple donors. By Anna Skinner On 1/18/23 at 4:42 PM EST. As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 11, 2023 There are currently 1,757,155,460,140 gallons of water in Lake Powell! Please contact the Operations Group via e-mail at [email protected] for additional information. The probable maximum inflow scenario reflects a wet hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 10 percent of the time. If Glen Canyon Dam ceases to operate, we are going to have to replace that power somewhere else and it will have a bigger carbon footprint, said Bryan Hannegan, CEO of Holy Cross Energy, which buys Lake Powells hydropower to serve customers in Western Colorado. The most recent data is from Monday, February 27th, 2023. In order to restore Lake Powell's levels, one expert said people must conserve water in the Colorado River's lower basin. "As a result of this update, the median water year 2022 inflow forecast into Lake Powell decreased by 800,000 acre-feet," USBR stated in a press release distributed Thursday. google_ad_type = "text_image"; At the beginning of the series in 1999, water levels in Lake Powell were relatively high, and the water was a clear, dark blue. The lake is set to reach. LAKE POWELL, Utah Lake Powell water levels continue to drop, and a new report released by the Bureau of Reclamation projects the possibility America's . An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot. google_ad_width = 160; A visual history of the water level of each of our Lake Powell trips over the past three years. So, it takes awhile to fill and it takes awhile to empty.". 04:12 - Source: CNN Previous forecasts showed this was possible and the Bureau of Reclamation announced on March 4 that a . (Hugh Carey, The Colorado Sun), How Denver is spending the $41M from the Broncos sale, (720) 263-2338 Call, text, Signal or WhatsApp, Proudly powered by Newspack by Automattic. Lake Powell is so low that it is nearing a dead pool, in which water levels aren't high enough to deliver water downstream. Changes in the northeastern reaches of Lake Powell are documented in this series of natural-color images taken by the Landsat series of satellites between 1999 and 2021. Gas Prices on Lake Flight Center. In July 2022, the lake reached a historic low of 1,040 feet above sea level. U.S. Arizona Drought Climate Change Water Conservation. She reported that, as of March 16, 2022, Lake Powell was at an elevation of 3,524.83 feet (ft.) with storage of 5.916 million acre-feet (maf) or 24 percent of capacity. Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. Even Less water forecast to flow into Lake Powell this year, report says May NOAA runoff report predicts even less water will flow into Lake Powell this year than previously forecasted. Despite those releases, Powell dropped below 3,525 last month, hitting 3,523, another historic drought landmark. The annual release volume from Lake Powell during water year 2023 will be 7.77 maf under the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier and will balance the contents between Powell and Mead with annual release volumes from Glen Canyon Dam between 7.00 maf and 9.50 maf as determined under Section 6.D.1 and 7.D of the Interim Guidelines as determined by the Department of the Interior as described above. It wasnt just the Powell number that dipped, although the amount of runoff that makes its way to Powell each year is considered a good barometer for conditions basinwide. n$L{Z. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites Human actions created the Salton Sea, Californias largest lake heres Scientists studying water supply focus on weeks following peak snowpack. The critical issue is how to maintain the lake at 3,525, which marks an elevation that is the top of the liquid buffer zone designed to protect the lakes mighty electricity turbines. Detailed Map of Powell Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section). Projections at Lake Mead show there is a chance as high as 66% that water levels will decline to 1,025 feet by 2025, triggering a Tier 3 Shortage. //2006-10-04: news The sediment-filled Colorado River appeared green-brown. In addition to the February 2023 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Drought Response Operational Agreement (DROA)), Reclamation has conducted model runs in February to determine a possible range of reservoir elevations. google_color_link = "0000FF"; The nation's second-largest reservoir is under pressure from climate change and steady demand, and is now . Committee on the Scientific Bases of Colorado River Basin Water Management, National Research Council. Its better than last year, but well just have to see what the next two to four weeks holds for precipitation.. Reclamation will also ensure all appropriate consultation with Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico, other federal agencies, water users and non-governmental organizations with respect to implementation of these monthly and annual operations. In March 2022, it fell below a critical level of 3,525 feet above sea levelthe lake's target elevation. Colorado River Basin Water Management: Evaluating and Adjusting to Hydroclimatic Variability. Using the approach described in the immediately preceding paragraph, the August 2022 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2023, Lake Powell elevation to be less than 3,525 feet. An initiative of the Center for Environmental Journalism at the University of Colorado Boulder. endstream endobj 160 0 obj <>/Metadata 41 0 R/Pages 157 0 R/StructTreeRoot 59 0 R/Type/Catalog/ViewerPreferences 177 0 R>> endobj 161 0 obj <>/MediaBox[0 0 792 612]/Parent 157 0 R/Resources<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageB/ImageC/ImageI]/XObject<>>>/Rotate 0/StructParents 0/Tabs/S/Type/Page>> endobj 162 0 obj <>stream Level 3 Shortage Condition 1,025 ft and below Elevation 1,090 ft Elevation 1,045 ft Historical Future The probable minimum inflow scenario reflects a dry hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 90 percent of the time. His freelance google_ad_height = 600; //-->, Printable Version The release volume from Glen Canyon Dam in January was 500 kaf. SW Satellite Weather google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; Together with the release of more water into Lake Powell from an upstream dam, the decision will keep the lake at a level at which it can continue generating hydropower for the next 12 months. She can be reached at 720-398-6474, via email [email protected] @jerd_smith. The DROA coordination will continue until either (i) the minimum probable projected elevation remains above 3,525 feet for 24 months or (ii) the process moves to the next step when the most probable projected elevation indicates Powell elevations below 3,525 feet and a Drought Response Operations Plan is developed. According to Jay Lund, vice director for the Center for Watershed Sciences and a professor at the University of California, the long-term average use in the lower Colorado River Basin exceeds the long-term flow of water, meaning the only solution is to "substantially reduce water use" in the basin. More by Chris Outcalt, Got a story tip? The peak inflow to Lake Powell occurs in mid- to late spring, as the winter snow in the Rocky Mountains melts. The period 2000-2022 is the lowest 23-year period since the closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963, with an average unregulated inflow of 8.29 maf, or 93 percent of the 30-year average (1991-2020). Lake Powells side branches had all retreated compared to the previous years extents. Lake Mead was at elevation 1,064.30 ft. with storage of 8.753 maf or 34 percent of capacity. Detailed Map of Powell Soil moisture conditions have improved over the last year across most of Colorados Western Slope, but thats not necessarily saying much because of how bad soil moisture conditions were heading into last years snowmelt runoff season, Moser said. But generally below-normal precipitation the last several months after a very wet December.. There are continued discussions when and how that same amount of water (0.523 maf) will be . Today is day 151 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us. google_color_text = "000000"; " 9`SADP zg Ab``#@ 7 3 google_color_url = "426C95"; After decades of drought, the water level in Lake Powell has sunk to unimaginable lows, threatening millions of people who rely on the water supply. Back then, Hannegan said, We made an assumption that our WAPA (Western Area Power Administration) allocation would be firm, reliable and always there. Our editorial policy and donor list can be viewed atwateredco.org. DATE MEASURED ELEVATION CHANGE CONTENT INFLOW OUTFLOW HIGH TEMP LOW TEMP WATER TEMP . Based on current inflow forecasts, the current projected end of water year 2023 total Colorado Basin reservoir storage is approximately 20.93 maf (36 percent of total system capacity). The forecast estimated that the amount of water that will flow into Lake Powell this spring and summer will be about 59% of average, based on 30 years of data from 1991 to 2020. Much of that water. Fish & Wildlife Service Endangered Species Success Stories. With low-runoff conditions and . According to Reclamation, there is a 27% chance that Powell will still stop generating electricity completely over the next four years. But it is concerning. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for elevations above 4000.Heavy accumulations of 10-20 are forecast above 6000, 3-8 to 4500 and several inches to valley floors. Fresh Water News is an independent, nonpartisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window), Wind affected on the west and south facing aspects of the Gore Range seen on, April 7, 2022, near Vail. Newsweek reached out to the U.S. Geological Survey for comment. The probable minimum and probable maximum model runs are conducted simultaneously in January, April, August, and October, or when necessary to incorporate changing conditions. To view the current inflow forecast relative to past inflows, click on Lake Powell Inflow Forecast. The reservoir's levels rise after consistent rain or snowpack melt in the area. KNAUs Melissa Sevigny reports. What's the weather forecast for 2050? Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. Under the current most probable forecast, the total water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell is projected to be 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). Shifting the period of record decreased the average unregulated inflow 1.20 maf. google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; Drop us a note at [email protected]. KNAU's Melissa Sevigny reports. google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; The unregulated inflow during the 2000-2022 period has ranged from a low of 2.64 maf (28 percent of average) in water year 2002 to a high of 15.97 maf (166 percent of average) in water year 2011. The actual end of water year 2023 system storage may vary from this projection, primarily due to uncertainty regarding this seasons runoff and reservoir inflow. @) .=] j Bvq2 4=B4[YCO@p/e`5[ #("A3?M|Cd(Jje(B_il:.\7m=.{CZ&&q5O}NOB6jGptUEN1Dh'6dW30oLqmt1W#F/qy<5aJ5 LuQmB(JD'4z`9q#v k[ T Based on the current forecast of 10.44 maf unregulated inflow for water year 2023, the February 24-Month Study projects Lake Powell elevation will end water year 2023 near 3555.45 feet with approximately 7.47 maf in storage (32 percent of capacity). View CFS Last 14 Measurements Lake Powell is down -1.03 feet over these measurements Averages for February 27th Last 10 February 27th's data records Lake Powell
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